John Maynard Keynes on Economic Thinking
The General Theory, chapter 21:
The object of our analysis is, not to provide a machine, or method of
blind manipulation, which will furnish an infallible answer, but to
provide ourselves with an organised and orderly method of thinking out
particular problems; and, after we have reached a provisional conclusion
by isolating the complicating factors one by one, we then have to go
back on ourselves and allow, as well as we can, for the probable
interactions of the factors amongst themselves.
This is the nature of economic thinking. Any other way of applying
our formal principles of thought (without which, however, we shall be
lost in the wood) will lead us into error.
It is a great fault of symbolic pseudo-mathematical methods of
formalising a system of economic analysis, such as we shall set down in
section vi of this chapter, that they expressly assume strict
independence between the factors involved and lose all their cogency and
authority if this hypothesis is disallowed; whereas, in ordinary
discourse, where we are not blindly manipulating but know all the time
what we are doing and what the words mean, we can keep 'at the back of
our heads' the necessary reserves and qualifications and the adjustments
which we shall have to make later on, in a way in which we cannot keep
complicated partial differentials 'at the back' of several pages of
algebra which assume that they all vanish.
Too large a proportion of recent 'mathematical' economics are merely
concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which
allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and
interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and
unhelpful symbols.
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